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New this season, ESPN Analytics will also generate daily NBA fantasy projections. By combining historical player and team data and specific game factors ESPN is able to accurately predict player box score stats. Accounting for injuries, trends in playing time, and other factors impacting future performance the statistical models can be used to help NBA fantasy players gain an edge in their league.
What you need to know for Thursday’s games
Stars and sleepers showed out on Wednesday in the NBA. The Philadelphia 76ers’ Joel Embiid posted an efficient 51 points in downing the league’s top defense, while Utah’s Talen Horton-Tucker (rostered in 15.6% of ESPN leagues) tied his career high in dimes in a loss to Cleveland.
Embiid absurdly has more points than minutes played, but we know how dominant he is. Players with significant changes in opportunity rates such as Horton-Tucker can immediately help fantasy rosters. Dallas Mavericks guard Dante Exum (16.1%) also qualifies as an ideal interim addition, especially after posting another strong last night. Both guards could lose minutes and touches when their respective teams get healthier, so the time is now.
In some unfortunate news, it appears the Knicks project Mitchell Robinson to miss the season due to ankle surgery. This means Isaiah Hartenstein (12.6%) could sustain strong rebounding and block results. Per tonight’s injury report, there aren’t many impact absences to consider. This rings especially true with Victor Wembanyama upgraded to probable this evening.
Thursday offers a really compelling eight-game slate in terms of quality of matchups for both real and fantasy outcomes. The Clippers visit the Thunder in a matchup of Western contenders in a contest with a healthy total of 235.5 points. Ja Morant and Tyrese Haliburton face off in a fun test for both teams. Even the weaker teams have some nice matchups, such as the Wizards in Portland to face the Trail Blazers in a matchup with the second-highest total of the night. We feature a top young guard from that game in the section below.
With relatively healthy rosters and quality matchups across the board, this is a good night for building DFS stacks (that Pacers vs. Grizzlies game, for instance) and getting creative with streaming decisions.
Thursday’s Stream Team
Scoot Henderson, PG, Trail Blazers (52.8%): The Wizards are 29th in defensive rating and particularly suspect at the point of attack. This means Scoot could thrive in an uptempo game. The absence of Shaedon Sharpe adds to Henderson’s usage, as well.
Ivica Zubac, C, Clippers (58.6%): A surge in defensive rates combined with his role as the lone true big in the rotation means real double-double potential as the Clippers will likely need to match the Thunder’s size at times.
Talen Horton-Tucker, SG/SF (16.5%) and Collin Sexton, PG/SG (48.5%), Jazz: With «THT» handling point guard duties, Sexton is freed to find his shot and attack in space. I’d actually rather roster Horton-Tucker’s more diverse fantasy profile, but both are in a great spot against this porous Detroit defense.
Trey Murphy III, SG/SF (24.4%): Don’t let some quiet recent games throw you off, as Murphy is on the rise overall in terms of working his way back from injury and producing as a two-way wing. The depleted Cavaliers aren’t the defense of last year.
Sam Merrill, SG (0.9%), Cavaliers: Cleveland’s injury issues have vaulted Merrill into a more important shooting and spacing role for a team in need of added gravity. Merrill is coming off of a career night; let’s see how he follows it up against a solid Pelicans group.
Projections and Injury Reports
Fantasy projections powered by ESPN Analytics.* Projections assume all players who are listed as GTD will play. Injury aggregation by Rotowire.com. Players available in at least 50% of ESPN leagues are listed in italics.
Utah Jazz at Detroit Pistons
7 p.m. Little Caesars Arena, Detroit
BPI Projection: Pistons in the 4th highest-scoring game of the slate.
Injury Report:
Jazz: Keyonte George, (GTD – Foot); Omer Yurtseven, (GTD – Illness); Jordan Clarkson, (OUT – Thigh)
Pistons: Monte Morris, (OUT – Quadriceps); Isaiah Stewart, (GTD – Shoulder); Killian Hayes, (GTD – Illness); Jalen Duren, (OUT – Ankle)
Jazz projections:
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Lauri Markkanen, SF/PF: 39.2 FPTS (22.7 pts, 8.2 reb, 1.0 ast, 3.1 3PM)
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Collin Sexton, PG/SG: 27.2 FPTS (16.0 pts, 3.2 reb, 3.0 ast)
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Talen Horton-Tucker, SG/SF: 25.0 FPTS (12.7 pts, 2.7 reb, 3.3 ast)
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John Collins, PF: 23.4 FPTS (12.3 pts, 7.1 reb, 0.8 ast)
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Walker Kessler, C: 20.9 FPTS (9.5 pts, 8.1 reb, 1.0 ast, 2.9 blk)
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Kelly Olynyk, PF/C: 20.3 FPTS (7.2 pts, 5.8 reb, 3.2 ast)
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Simone Fontecchio, SF: 17.4 FPTS (8.9 pts, 2.8 reb, 1.3 ast)
Pistons projections:
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Cade Cunningham, PG/SG: 36.1 FPTS (21.4 pts, 3.8 reb, 6.6 ast, 2.0 3PM)
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Bojan Bogdanovic, SF/PF: 28.0 FPTS (18.3 pts, 2.7 reb, 2.5 ast, 2.6 3PM)
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Jaden Ivey, PG/SG: 20.5 FPTS (12.4 pts, 2.9 reb, 2.3 ast)
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Ausar Thompson, SG/SF: 18.6 FPTS (10.2 pts, 4.7 reb, 1.1 ast)
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Killian Hayes, PG: 18.2 FPTS (7.9 pts, 2.7 reb, 3.4 ast)
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Marvin Bagley III, PF/C: 17.3 FPTS (9.7 pts, 5.0 reb, 0.8 ast)
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Isaiah Stewart, PF/C: 16.3 FPTS (7.2 pts, 5.2 reb, 1.3 ast)
New Orleans Pelicans at Cleveland Cavaliers
7:30 p.m. Rocket Mortgage FieldHouse, Cleveland
BPI Projection: Pelicans in the 7th highest-scoring game of the slate.
Injury Report:
Pelicans: Matt Ryan, (OUT – Elbow); Cody Zeller, (GTD – Ankle); Herbert Jones, (GTD – Illness); Jonas Valanciunas, (GTD – Illness); Zion Williamson, (GTD – Illness); Larry Nance Jr., (OUT – Ribs)
Cavaliers: Darius Garland, (OUT – Jaw); Evan Mobley, (OUT – Knee); Ricky Rubio, (OUT – Personal); Donovan Mitchell, (GTD – Illness); Ty Jerome, (OUT – Ankle)
Pelicans projections:
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Brandon Ingram, SF/PF: 39.0 FPTS (23.5 pts, 4.3 reb, 4.9 ast)
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CJ McCollum, PG/SG: 36.2 FPTS (19.3 pts, 3.8 reb, 4.8 ast, 2.9 3PM)
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Zion Williamson, PF: 32.9 FPTS (20.1 pts, 4.8 reb, 4.5 ast)
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Jonas Valanciunas, C: 30.9 FPTS (14.3 pts, 9.8 reb, 2.4 ast)
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Herbert Jones, SF/PF: 20.1 FPTS (8.5 pts, 3.5 reb, 2.5 ast)
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Dyson Daniels, PG/SG: 17.1 FPTS (6.4 pts, 3.4 reb, 2.9 ast)
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Jose Alvarado, PG: 16.4 FPTS (8.7 pts, 2.4 reb, 2.0 ast)
Cavaliers projections:
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Donovan Mitchell, PG/SG: 47.2 FPTS (27.6 pts, 5.2 reb, 5.5 ast, 3.1 3PM)
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Jarrett Allen, C: 28.1 FPTS (13.2 pts, 8.3 reb, 2.3 ast)
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Max Strus, SG/SF: 27.7 FPTS (12.0 pts, 4.9 reb, 3.2 ast, 2.5 3PM)
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Caris LeVert, SG/SF: 24.4 FPTS (12.4 pts, 3.0 reb, 2.9 ast)
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Isaac Okoro, SG/SF: 17.1 FPTS (8.1 pts, 3.5 reb, 1.3 ast)
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Craig Porter, SG: 16.6 FPTS (8.3 pts, 2.5 reb, 1.8 ast)
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Dean Wade, PF: 14.7 FPTS (4.7 pts, 4.4 reb, 1.0 ast)
San Antonio Spurs at Chicago Bulls
8 p.m. United Center, Chicago
BPI Projection: Bulls in the 4th highest-scoring game of the slate.
Injury Report:
Spurs: Charles Bassey, (OUT – Knee); Keldon Johnson, (GTD – Back); Victor Wembanyama, (GTD – Ankle)
Bulls: Torrey Craig, (OUT – Heel); Lonzo Ball, (OUT – Knee); Onuralp Bitim, (GTD – Nose); Zach LaVine, (OUT – Foot)
Spurs projections:
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Keldon Johnson, SF: 35.5 FPTS (16.6 pts, 6.3 reb, 3.9 ast, 2.0 3PM)
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Devin Vassell, SG/SF: 28.6 FPTS (16.5 pts, 3.5 reb, 3.0 ast, 2.4 3PM)
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Jeremy Sochan, PG/PF: 21.3 FPTS (10.6 pts, 4.7 reb, 3.5 ast)
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Malaki Branham, SG: 19.8 FPTS (10.8 pts, 2.4 reb, 2.5 ast)
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Victor Wembanyama, PF/C: 18.9 FPTS (10.8 pts, 4.5 reb, 1.2 ast)
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Tre Jones, PG: 18.8 FPTS (7.2 pts, 2.4 reb, 4.4 ast)
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Zach Collins, PF/C: 18.5 FPTS (9.5 pts, 4.8 reb, 2.4 ast)
Bulls projections:
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DeMar DeRozan, SG/SF: 43.4 FPTS (26.7 pts, 3.9 reb, 5.4 ast)
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Nikola Vucevic, C: 38.8 FPTS (17.5 pts, 11.5 reb, 3.6 ast)
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Coby White, PG/SG: 36.4 FPTS (18.1 pts, 4.3 reb, 5.1 ast, 3.0 3PM)
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Patrick Williams, SF/PF: 25.2 FPTS (14.3 pts, 5.4 reb, 1.5 ast, 1.2 blk)
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Ayo Dosunmu, SG: 18.5 FPTS (8.9 pts, 2.8 reb, 1.9 ast)
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Alex Caruso, PG/SG: 15.7 FPTS (6.6 pts, 2.6 reb, 1.8 ast)
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Andre Drummond, C: 14.4 FPTS (7.0 pts, 5.7 reb, 0.5 ast)
Indiana Pacers at Memphis Grizzlies
8 p.m. FedExForum, Memphis
BPI Projection: Pacers in the highest-scoring game of the slate.
Injury Report:
Pacers: Andrew Nembhard, (GTD – Knee)
Grizzlies: Brandon Clarke, (OUT – Achilles); Steven Adams, (OUT – Knee); Marcus Smart, (GTD – Foot); Luke Kennard, (OUT – Knee); Derrick Rose, (OUT – Hamstring)
Pacers projections:
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Tyrese Haliburton, PG/SG: 48.6 FPTS (23.0 pts, 4.0 reb, 8.8 ast, 3.2 3PM)
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Myles Turner, C: 26.3 FPTS (13.8 pts, 8.0 reb, 1.0 ast, 2.2 blk)
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Bennedict Mathurin, SG/SF: 24.8 FPTS (15.3 pts, 4.0 reb, 1.9 ast)
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Bruce Brown, SG/SF: 22.9 FPTS (10.0 pts, 3.9 reb, 2.2 ast)
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T.J. McConnell, PG: 22.3 FPTS (10.4 pts, 3.5 reb, 3.7 ast)
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Aaron Nesmith, SF: 21.4 FPTS (11.4 pts, 3.4 reb, 0.9 ast)
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Buddy Hield, SG/SF: 20.3 FPTS (9.0 pts, 3.1 reb, 2.0 ast, 2.2 3PM)
Grizzlies projections:
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Ja Morant, PG: 42.6 FPTS (24.9 pts, 5.6 reb, 6.2 ast)
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Desmond Bane, SG/SF: 41.4 FPTS (23.8 pts, 4.4 reb, 5.4 ast, 3.2 3PM)
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Jaren Jackson Jr., PF/C: 29.3 FPTS (19.3 pts, 5.2 reb, 1.4 ast, 1.9 blk)
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Santi Aldama, PF/C: 20.3 FPTS (10.4 pts, 4.3 reb, 1.5 ast)
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Bismack Biyombo, C: 19.0 FPTS (8.2 pts, 8.1 reb, 1.6 ast, 1.3 blk)
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David Roddy, PF: 16.8 FPTS (8.8 pts, 3.9 reb, 0.9 ast)
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Vince Williams Jr., SF: 15.9 FPTS (6.2 pts, 5.4 reb, 1.0 ast)
Orlando Magic at Milwaukee Bucks
8 p.m. Fiserv Forum, Milwaukee
BPI Projection: Bucks in the 2nd highest-scoring game of the slate.
Injury Report:
Magic: Jalen Suggs, (GTD – Wrist); Joe Ingles, (GTD – Ankle); Markelle Fultz, (OUT – Knee)
Bucks: Jae Crowder, (OUT – Groin); TyTy Washington Jr., (GTD – Ankle); Giannis Antetokounmpo, (GTD – Foot)
Magic projections:
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Franz Wagner, SG/SF/PF: 36.4 FPTS (20.6 pts, 4.8 reb, 3.6 ast)
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Paolo Banchero, SF/PF: 34.9 FPTS (21.5 pts, 6.2 reb, 4.2 ast)
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Wendell Carter Jr., C: 23.7 FPTS (11.7 pts, 7.2 reb, 1.5 ast)
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Cole Anthony, PG: 23.2 FPTS (12.6 pts, 3.9 reb, 2.8 ast)
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Jalen Suggs, PG/SG: 19.0 FPTS (9.8 pts, 2.8 reb, 2.0 ast)
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Goga Bitadze, C: 18.8 FPTS (8.5 pts, 6.6 reb, 1.5 ast, 1.5 blk)
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Anthony Black, PG/SG: 16.6 FPTS (8.5 pts, 4.0 reb, 1.2 ast)
Bucks projections:
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Giannis Antetokounmpo, PF/C: 52.7 FPTS (30.9 pts, 11.4 reb, 5.5 ast)
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Damian Lillard, PG: 46.2 FPTS (26.2 pts, 4.9 reb, 7.0 ast, 2.8 3PM)
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Khris Middleton, SF: 28.1 FPTS (13.8 pts, 5.9 reb, 3.7 ast)
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Brook Lopez, C: 25.5 FPTS (12.8 pts, 5.6 reb, 1.3 ast, 1.8 3PM, 2.5 blk)
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Malik Beasley, SG: 23.9 FPTS (10.8 pts, 5.0 reb, 1.2 ast, 2.6 3PM)
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Bobby Portis, PF/C: 20.1 FPTS (10.4 pts, 5.7 reb, 1.2 ast)
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Andre Jackson Jr., SG: 11.7 FPTS (5.0 pts, 2.7 reb, 0.8 ast)
LA Clippers at Oklahoma City Thunder
8 p.m. Paycom Center, Oklahoma City
BPI Projection: Thunder in the 3rd highest-scoring game of the slate.
Injury Report:
Clippers: Mason Plumlee, (OUT – Knee); Moussa Diabate, (GTD – Hip); Paul George, (GTD – Illness)
Thunder: None reported
Clippers projections:
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Kawhi Leonard, SF/PF: 45.0 FPTS (26.4 pts, 5.8 reb, 3.6 ast, 2.2 3PM)
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James Harden, PG/SG: 36.9 FPTS (15.5 pts, 5.0 reb, 7.0 ast, 2.1 3PM)
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Paul George, SG/SF/PF: 36.7 FPTS (20.3 pts, 5.1 reb, 3.8 ast, 2.8 3PM)
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Ivica Zubac, C: 26.1 FPTS (12.6 pts, 10.2 reb, 1.3 ast, 1.5 blk)
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Russell Westbrook, PG: 20.8 FPTS (10.3 pts, 4.2 reb, 3.6 ast)
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Norman Powell, SG/SF: 17.5 FPTS (10.9 pts, 2.0 reb, 1.2 ast)
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Terance Mann, SG/SF: 16.0 FPTS (6.5 pts, 3.4 reb, 1.7 ast)
Thunder projections:
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Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, PG/SG: 57.4 FPTS (29.4 pts, 6.0 reb, 6.2 ast)
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Jalen Williams, SG/SF/PF: 31.8 FPTS (17.1 pts, 4.6 reb, 3.3 ast)
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Josh Giddey, PG/SG/PF: 21.0 FPTS (9.2 pts, 5.6 reb, 3.3 ast)
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Chet Holmgren, PF/C: 20.3 FPTS (11.3 pts, 5.0 reb, 1.2 ast)
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Luguentz Dort, SG/SF: 19.1 FPTS (8.9 pts, 4.3 reb, 1.1 ast)
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Cason Wallace, PG/SG: 16.6 FPTS (8.8 pts, 4.2 reb, 1.2 ast)
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Isaiah Joe, SG: 16.2 FPTS (8.4 pts, 2.2 reb, 1.1 ast, 1.9 3PM)
Los Angeles Lakers at Minnesota Timberwolves
9 p.m. Target Center, Minneapolis
BPI Projection: Timberwolves in the 6th highest-scoring game of the slate.
Injury Report:
Lakers: Jalen Hood-Schifino, (GTD – Back)
Timberwolves: Jaylen Clark, (OUT – Achilles)
Lakers projections:
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LeBron James, SF/PF: 44.0 FPTS (22.5 pts, 6.6 reb, 6.3 ast, 2.0 3PM)
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Anthony Davis, PF/C: 41.4 FPTS (22.2 pts, 11.9 reb, 3.0 ast, 1.9 blk)
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D’Angelo Russell, PG/SG: 28.7 FPTS (12.3 pts, 3.0 reb, 5.1 ast, 1.8 3PM)
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Austin Reaves, SG/SF: 26.6 FPTS (12.8 pts, 4.1 reb, 4.2 ast)
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Rui Hachimura, SF/PF: 19.2 FPTS (10.4 pts, 3.7 reb, 1.2 ast)
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Taurean Prince, SF: 16.6 FPTS (7.4 pts, 2.5 reb, 1.3 ast)
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Gabe Vincent, PG: 16.1 FPTS (7.0 pts, 1.8 reb, 2.2 ast)
Timberwolves projections:
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Karl-Anthony Towns, PF/C: 40.2 FPTS (21.6 pts, 9.3 reb, 3.5 ast)
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Anthony Edwards, SG/SF: 39.9 FPTS (23.3 pts, 5.0 reb, 5.1 ast, 2.3 3PM)
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Rudy Gobert, C: 29.3 FPTS (12.8 pts, 12.0 reb, 1.5 ast, 2.7 blk)
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Mike Conley, PG: 23.6 FPTS (7.9 pts, 2.9 reb, 4.8 ast)
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Naz Reid, PF/C: 20.9 FPTS (11.0 pts, 4.5 reb, 1.0 ast)
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Kyle Anderson, SF/PF: 16.1 FPTS (6.0 pts, 2.8 reb, 3.3 ast)
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Nickeil Alexander-Walker, SG: 14.4 FPTS (5.8 pts, 2.0 reb, 2.1 ast)
Washington Wizards at Portland Trail Blazers
10 p.m. Moda Center, Portland
BPI Projection: Blazers in the 8th highest-scoring game of the slate.
Injury Report:
Wizards: Delon Wright, (OUT – Knee); Johnny Davis, (OUT – Calf); Landry Shamet, (OUT – Ribs)
Blazers: Robert Williams III, (OUT – Knee); Shaedon Sharpe, (OUT – Groin)
Wizards projections:
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Kyle Kuzma, SF/PF: 38.3 FPTS (23.0 pts, 5.7 reb, 4.3 ast, 2.3 3PM)
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Tyus Jones, PG: 30.3 FPTS (13.2 pts, 3.4 reb, 4.3 ast)
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Jordan Poole, PG/SG: 27.4 FPTS (17.7 pts, 2.9 reb, 3.6 ast, 2.1 3PM)
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Deni Avdija, SF/PF: 26.4 FPTS (11.6 pts, 5.8 reb, 3.6 ast)
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Daniel Gafford, PF/C: 26.1 FPTS (11.6 pts, 8.7 reb, 1.7 ast, 2.0 blk)
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Bilal Coulibaly, SG: 18.1 FPTS (10.2 pts, 4.2 reb, 1.1 ast)
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Corey Kispert, SG/SF: 17.6 FPTS (10.2 pts, 2.3 reb, 1.3 ast, 1.9 3PM)
Blazers projections:
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Anfernee Simons, PG/SG: 40.6 FPTS (23.2 pts, 3.0 reb, 4.8 ast, 3.1 3PM)
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Jerami Grant, PF: 37.2 FPTS (23.7 pts, 3.9 reb, 2.8 ast, 2.4 3PM)
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Deandre Ayton, C: 28.0 FPTS (12.4 pts, 10.2 reb, 1.4 ast)
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Malcolm Brogdon, PG/SG: 23.9 FPTS (11.1 pts, 2.7 reb, 4.1 ast)
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Toumani Camara, PF: 18.9 FPTS (9.9 pts, 4.3 reb, 1.1 ast)
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Scoot Henderson, PG: 18.0 FPTS (9.7 pts, 4.0 reb, 1.1 ast)
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Duop Reath, C: 17.4 FPTS (8.4 pts, 2.9 reb, 1.2 ast)